The governor’s mansion is up for grabs in 2026, and plenty of Republicans and Democrats are hoping for the keys. Democrats hope to win their first governor’s race since 1994, while Republicans are trying to cement themselves as the leader of a state that is turning more red with every election.
Meanwhile, the two most powerful Republicans in Florida—President Donald Trump and current Governor Ron DeSantis—battle each other for supremacy over the Sunshine State.
Republican Primary Candidates
In Feb. of 2025, President Trump endorsed Representative Byron Donalds for Florida governor. In a TruthSocial post, Trump posted that Donalds was a “TOTAL WINNER” and would be “a truly Great and Powerful Governor for Florida.” Donalds officially jumped into the race five days later. Many thought this early endorsement would effectively freeze the Republican primary for Donalds, but this appears not to be the case.
DeSantis, who won re-election by a 20-point margin in 2022, did not share Trump’s vision for the future of Florida. He began to tout his wife, Casey DeSantis. “Anything we’ve accomplished, she’d be able to take to the next level,” Gov. DeSantis said. Casey DeSantis has no political experience and was a former journalist before becoming the first lady of Florida in 2019.
These comments came days after Trump endorsed Donalds to be the next governor of Florida. DeSantis also took a few shots at Donalds while touting his wife. “A guy like Byron, he just hasn’t been a part of any victories that we’ve had over the left over these last few years,” DeSantis said. These competing endorsements set up a showdown between the governor of Florida and the President of the United States over who holds more sway over Floridians.
A new development in the race to replace DeSantis is the entrance of former Speaker of the Florida State House, Paul Renner. Renner, a Republican, served in the state House of Representatives from 2015–24 and was Speaker from 2022–24. While serving as Speaker, Renner was a strong ally of DeSantis and helped him rise to national prominence. He delivered DeSantis’ most significant legislative wins during his tenure as governor.
DeSantis said that he will not be endorsing Renner, despite Renner’s ability to potentially pull conservatives away from Donalds. “… I think it was an ill-advised decision to enter the race.” DeSantis said of Renner’s entry into the primary.
Finally, the Lieutenant Governor of Florida, Jay Collins, has all but officially announced his plans to run for governor. Collins became the Lieutenant Governor in August of 2025 and was a member of the Florida Senate from 2022 to 2025.
Democratic Primary Candidates
For the Democrats, the front-runner for the nomination appears to be David Jolly. Jolly, a former Republican member of Congress from 2014–17, announced his bid for governor in June, stating that “Republicans in Tallahassee have gone too far in dividing us. I think we should get politicians out of the classrooms, out of the doctor’s offices…”
Jolly, a vocal Trump critic during his time in office, expressed views that he was pro-life and for same-sex marriage, while also going against oil drilling in the Gulf of Mexico and supporting limits on political campaign contributions. These centrist stances led to Jolly being ranked as the 48th most bipartisan member of the U.S. House of Representatives by The Lugar Center in 2016.
If Jolly were to be nominated, it would be the second straight time the Democratic Party selected a former Republican. The first being when Charlie Christ, a former Republican governor, lost to Ron DeSantis by 20 points in the 2022 gubernatorial contest.
While Jolly is the only notable Democratic candidate, his entry into the race has been received with skepticism by some Democrats. The most prominent critic is Anna Hochkammer, the Executive Director of Florida Women’s Freedom Coalition. Hochkammer wrote an op-ed in the Miami Herald a month after Jolly joined the race, warning Democrats to be wary of the former Republican’s stances on abortion.
In the editorial, Hochkammer pointed out Jolly’s shifting views on abortion. Noting that in 2016, Jolly told the Tampa Bay Times that he believes that “life begins at conception,” and that he authored legislation to defund Planned Parenthood. Jolly now claims he supports codifying the Roe v. Wade framework. With over 90% of Florida Democrats and 57.2% of the voters supporting abortion access, Hochkammer argues that a Democrat whose abortion stance is newly minted at best cannot possibly be expected to win.
Jolly has also received pushback from younger Democrats. Lucas Nadeau, a student at the University of Florida, wrote an article in the student newspaper, The Independent Florida Alligator, warning against assuming that young Democrats will “vote blue no matter who.” Nadeau criticized Jolly for failing to make an effort to connect with Gen-Z voters and for his uninspiring or unoriginal campaign website.
These concerns are seemingly going unheeded, as no other serious Democratic candidate has entered the race. Prominent Democrats like U.S. Representative Jared Moskowitz appears to be taking a pass on this race in favor of seeking re-election.
Nikki Fried, chair of the Florida Democratic Party has declined to run, and Gwen Graham, the former candidate for governor in the 2018 Democratic gubernatorial primary, has endorsed Jolly.
A name to watch in the coming weeks is Jerry Demings, the mayor of Orange County. He is the husband of Val Demings, a former member of the U.S. House of Representatives and the 2022 Democratic nominee for Senate. She lost that race to current Secretary of State, then-Senator Marco Rubio, by 16 points.
Jerry Demings has been the mayor of Orange County since 2018 and was Sheriff of Orange County for nearly 10 years. Mayor Demings appears to be very interested in the governorship and plans to join the race soon, as reported by Peter Schorsch of Florida Politics. If Demings were to enter the race, it would mark David Jolly’s first true test of the primary.
What now?
As of now, it appears Florida is heading for a showdown between Donalds and Jolly. A big win by Donalds would send a strong signal that the Democrats must look to their left rather than to their right for their next nominee. The polling right now shows a competitive race between either Donalds or Renner versus Jolly.
According to the James Madison Institute, Donalds is up by only 4 points, down from 8 points, over Jolly. Depending on the size, scope and makeup of a Donalds victory, it could spell doom for any Florida Democrat from having any shot at the governor’s mansion.
